Mwahaki King
Spring 2015
B.A. Diplomacy and World Affairs || Occidental College
M.A. Law and Diplomacy || The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Prompt: Your Head of State has asked you to assess policy towards the most volatile, dangerous flashpoint on the globe. Drawing upon your knowledge of the origins of World War I, where do you see the greatest risk of World War III breaking out? Is it inevitable? If not, what policies might help stave it off? Will "appeasement" or the "Vietnam syndrome" help or hurt? Write a memo of four (4) pages.
The Possibility of World War III: Outbreak in the Middle East
The area that poses the greatest risk for an outbreak of World War III is the Middle East. This is due to resource competition exacerbated by severe environmental concerns and the internal conflicts stimulated by regional instability and large youth unemployment.
Water scarcity is a major problem for several Arab states. This, in conjunction with rapid desertification is having a detrimental effect on agriculture and increasing malnutrition rates.[1] These environmental concerns will only worsen as the century continues. [2] Furthermore, the regional instability seen in the Syrian civil war and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, coupled with the largely disenfranchised youth population that ignited the revolutions of the Arab Spring will lead to inter-state warfare as the environmental factors place additional stress on already limited resources. As this region is the epicenter of global oil production, Western powers such as the United States will feel the need to intervene to protect their national interest in the oil, elevating the conflict to a World War III scenario. Additionally, water scarcity is also a massive problem for rising power, India [3] and unless a solution is found the consequences in a World War III situation could be disastrous.
However, an outbreak of World War III is not inevitable. The similarities do exist between this World War III scenario and World War I, particularly internal conflict, resource competition and in some spheres of the West the belief that with modern technology war can be easy. Nevertheless, we are not doomed to make the same mistakes. If policies are enacted to address the underlying issues, primarily water scarcity and youth unemployment the risk of war can be greatly reduced. While being problematic, regional instability alone will not lead to an inter-state conflict of World War III proportions. The Swedish and Swiss governments have already developed measures to tackle the water crisis designed for the Middle East and the World Economic Forum has made suggestions specifically targeted at Middle Eastern youth.